Head to Head

UFC 86 invades the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas on Saturday, July 5, airing live on PPV at 10 p.m. ET. In the main event, UFC light heavyweight champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson takes on Forrest Griffin. Also on the card, Josh Koscheck vs. Chris Lytle and Marcus Aurelio vs. Tyson Griffin.

To help you get ready for UFC 86, CBSSports.com gives you a complete look at each fight on the card, with analysis from our knowledgeable MMA writers. Take a look, and then discuss your own predictions on the message board at the bottom of this page.

Fighter photos courtesy of UFC.

UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout:
	QUINTON JACKSON	vs.	FORREST GRIFFIN
	"Rampage"	Nickname	n/a
	30	Age	29
	6-1	Height	6-3
	28-6 (3-0 UFC)	Record	15-4 (6-2 UFC)
	13 (2 UFC)	KO/TKOs	3 (1 UFC)
	7 (0 UFC)	Submissions	7 (2 UFC)
	6 wins	Streak	2 wins
	def. Dan Henderson UFC 75 9/8/2007	Last Fight	def. Mauricio Rua UFC 76 9/22/2007

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: The key to Rampage is his power. He's not a top-notch ground fighter, but he's good enough to defend well against submissions and to muscle his way out of situations that would leave other fighters stuck. If they keep it standing, either guy has a shot, with Rampage possessing more knockout power. Griffin said last year he was no longer convinced he had an iron chin after the Keith Jardine loss. If Griffin thinks that about himself, there's no reason for me to assume otherwise. Prior to the Jardine loss, Griffin was all about throwing leather until one guy collapsed. Now, he knows better. Griffin will look for a submission, and he could get it... but my money's on Rampage via TKO in Round 3.	Sam Caplan: Let me start out by saying this fight is going all five rounds. Griffin's chin is just too strong for Rampage to be able to finish him. And Griffin doesn't have the dynamic striking style that has given Jackson in the past. I expect a fight that will start slow but build to a major crescendo. I think that Rampage's work with Juanito Ibarra will really show here as I expect him to have the better defensive standup and for Griffin to eat a lot of punches and get bruised and cut. I think the damage that Griffin's face shows will be the deciding factor in the judges awarding Jackson a victory by unanimous decision.	Gregg Doyel: Nine times out of ten, Rampage beats Griffin up. But that 10th time ... well, this will be that 10th time. Rampage will dominate standing and knock Griffin to the ground, but from his back Griffin will lock Jackson into a triangle and submit him. I know, I know. I'm as shocked as anyone. But that's the way this fight is going to play out.	Todd Martin: I have foolishly counted out Griffin in the past, but I haven't learned my lesson yet. I'm not giving him much of a chance in this fight. I think Jackson's the better wrestler and the better striker. He has the better chin and he hasn't been submitted since his formative days in the sport. Really the only way I can see Jackson losing is if his cardio isn't up to snuff, but he went five hard rounds in his last fight. Jackson will win via KO/TKO, and it may be early.	Ben Fowlkes: Few people are giving Griffin much of a chance here. His victory over "Shogun" Rua has been all but dismissed, and most people have questioned everything from his power to his chin. One thing that isn't in question is his heart and his cardio. He can go five rounds with "Rampage", but in the end he doesn't have the tools to put him away. Jackson wins a hard fought decision after five grueling rounds.

Middleweight Bout:
	PATRICK COTE	vs.	RICARDO ALMEIDA
	"The Predator"	Nickname	"Big Dog"
	28	Age	31
	5-11	Height	6-0
	12-4 (3-4 UFC)	Record	9-2 (2-2 UFC)
	6 (2 UFC)	KO/TKOs	0
	3 (0 UFC)	Submissions	4 (2 UFC)
	4 wins	Streak	7 wins
	def. Drew McFedries Fight Night 12 1/23/2008	Last Fight	def. Rob Yundt UFC 81 2/2/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Cote is primarily a striker. Almeida is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioner under Renzo Gracie. Cote amassed an 0-4 record in the UFC right out of the gate before his recent resurgence, knocking out Kendall Grove and Drew McFedries in the past year. Almeida looked great against Rob Yundt, but prior to that. he hadn't fought since 2004, so it's hard to judge where he's at from that one fight. I'm going with Almeida via submission, Round 2.	Sam Caplan: This fight is supposedly for a shot at the middleweight title. And based on the current state of the UFC's middleweight division, why the heck not? After going winless in the UFC, Cote now has two solid victories over Kendall Grove and Drew McFedries. Almeida is a legendary grappler who ended a self-imposed four-year hiatus from competitive MMA to return at UFC 81 in Feb. In that fight he submitted Rob Yundt at 1:08 of round 1. But Yundt took the fight on short notice and is amongst the lower-echelon of the UFC's middleweight division. This is just a tough fight to call and I think it will come down to Almeida's takedowns vs. Cote's takedown defense. I'm going with Cote's takedown division and picking him to win via second round TKO.	Gregg Doyel: I've seen enough of Cote to know he's not going to ascend higher than his place right now in the UFC. He's a very good striker with decent submissions, which makes him a legitimate top-10 UFC middleweight. I've not seen enough of Almeida to know his ceiling -- none of us has, considering he has fought just once since taking a four-year layoff -- but I know he has the exact ground game that gives Cote fits. Watch him figure out the Predator's weaknesses in the first round and submit him in the second. And then get demolished by Anderson Silva.	Todd Martin: This is classic striker vs. grappler. Cote will win this fight if it remains on the feet. Almeida will win if it is fought on the ground. My normal inclination is to take the grappler over the striker, but this has not been a good year for wrestlers trying to take down strikers. That leaves me torn on this one, but I'm going to go with Almeida to score the submission win.	Ben Fowlkes: This has the potential to be an excellent fight. Neither guy can afford a loss and they each have their separate, but equally dangerous attributes. The biggest question for Almeida since his comeback has been whether he's really interested in being a pro fighter. He showed no ring rust against Rob Yundt, though he wasn't really pushed in that bout. Cote will put up a fight, but Almeida will secure a late submission.

Lightweight Bout:
	JOE STEVENSON	vs.	GLEISON TIBAU
	"Daddy"	Nickname	n/a
	26	Age	24
	5-7	Height	5-10
	28-8 (5-2 UFC)	Record	15-5 (3-2 UFC)
	6 (1 UFC)	KO/TKOs	2 (0 UFC)
	12 (2 UFC)	Submissions	7 (1 UFC)
	1 loss	Streak	1 loss
	lost to BJ Penn UFC 80 1/19/2008	Last Fight	lost to Tyson Griffin UFC 81 2/2/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Joe "Daddy" comes into this fight looking to rebound after a disappointing (but unsurprising) loss to BJ Penn in Stevenson's first shot at a UFC title. Tibau recently lost to Tyson Griffin, which snapped Tibau's three-fight UFC win streak. I think Stevenson will come out fast and look to finish Tibau early with fists. He might not drop him immediately, but Stevenson still wins this via TKO.	Sam Caplan: Gleison Tibau is the kind of fighter that if he went to a smaller promotion, he would likely be their champion at 155. As it stands now, he's a small fish in a big pond and he's scheduled to face a big fish this Saturday. Joe Stevenson was completely dominated by B.J. Penn this past January, but what does that mean? There's no shame in being outclassed by the best lightweight in the world. Tibau's strength is the ground, but Stevenson's jiu-jitsu is no joke. Not to mention, his wrestling could actually give him an advantage on the ground. Stevenson via unanimous decision.	Gregg Doyel: Tibau is a gatekeeper for the MMA lightweight top 10. If you're a top-10 fighter, you win. If you're not, he wins. Joe Stevenson? He's in the top 10, and probably top five. So he'll win. That's a given. The only question is how. My guess: a grinding decision after three rounds of ground-and-pound.	Todd Martin: This should be a competitive ground battle. Both guys have good submission games. Stevenson's probably the better wrestler, while Tibau probably has the better overall jiu jitsu game. I think the percentages are with Stevenson, who is likely to be on top more and thus is more likely to score the decision if neither man can finish the fight.	Ben Fowlkes: From a title fight to a bout with GleisonTibau is quite a leap for Stevenson, but it might be just what he needs to get back on track. He has all the tools to win this as long as he isn't bringing his loss against Penn into this one. Tibau is a game fighter, but not in the top echelon of the UFC's lightweight division. Stevenson wins this via TKO in the first or second round.

Welterweight Bout:
	JOSH KOSCHECK	vs.	CHRIS LYTLE
	"Kos"	Nickname	"Lights Out"
	30	Age	33
	5-10	Height	5-11
	10-2 (8-2 UFC)	Record	25-15-5 (4-7 UFC)
	2 (2 UFC)	KO/TKOs	4 (1 UFC)
	4 (3 UFC)	Submissions	17 (3 UFC)
	1 win	Streak	1 win
	def. Dustin Hazelett UFC 82 3/1/2008	Last Fight	def. Kyle Bradley UFC 81 2/2/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Kos was on the fast track to the UFC welterweight title until he ran into the brick wall known as Georges St. Pierre. Lytle is something of a gatekeeper, capable of beating all but the top tier. In two and a half years, Lytle has lost three fights -- to Matt Hughes, Matt Serra and Thiago Alves. The men he's beaten are considerably less notable. Koscheck is rapidly improving all areas of his game, and I see him taking care of Lytle by Round 2.	Sam Caplan: Lytle is a solid fighter. He's done some pro boxing, but only on a regional level. He's good on the ground, but not world class. Lytle does a lot of things well, but nothing great. When it comes to wrestling, Josh Koscheck could be one of the best pure wrestlers in the sport. I think his shot is too quick and powerful for Lytle to combat and that Koscheck will be able to get the fight where he needs to take it. Koscheck via unanimous decision.	Gregg Doyel: When Chris Lytle wins, he wins by submission. That means he can't win this fight, because if BBJ wizard Dustin Hazelett couldn't submit Josh Koscheck, there's no way in hell Chris Lytle will be able to do it. When Chris Lytle loses, he loses by decision. But not this time. Koscheck has added a nasty head kick to his still-growing game, and he'll catch Lytle with that, or with something, and knock him into next week.	Todd Martin: Lytle is a great gatekeeper of sorts for UFC. He's a tough, veteran fighter who defeats mid-level and lower fighters and loses to elite fighters. Unfortunately for Lytle, Koscheck more comfortably fits into the latter category. I think Koscheck is improving too rapidly to get caught by Lytle.	Ben Fowlkes: The old Josh Koscheck might have been picked apart by Lytle, but he's a much different fighter these days. His pure athleticism has helped him improve his striking game immensely and he's still a powerhouse on the mat. Lytle is always dangerous, but as long as Koscheck doesn't get wrapped up in trying to prove a point by standing and trading with him he should take this one via -- what else -- a decision.

Lightweight Bout:
	TYSON GRIFFIN	vs.	MARCUS AURELIO
	n/a	Nickname	"Maximus"
	24	Age	34
	5-6	Height	5-10
	11-1 (4-1 UFC)	Record	16-5 (2-1 UFC)
	5 (0 UFC)	KO/TKOs	3 (1 UFC)
	3 (1 UFC)	Submissions	10 (1 UFC)
	3 wins	Streak	2 wins
	def. Gleison Tibau UFC 81 2/2/2008	Last Fight	def. Ryan Roberts Fight Night 13 4/2/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Provided he wins a couple more times, Griffin figures to contend for BJ Penn's lightweight title within the next year or so. He'll have to get through Aurelio first, a PRIDE veteran whose only UFC loss was to Clay Guida via split decision. Griffin's wrestling and his ground and pound are his big weapons, but he'll have to be careful on the ground against Aurelio and his arsenal of submissions. I give the nod to Griffin, who should be able to stay out of harm's way and gut out a decision.	Sam Caplan: This is going to be a tremendous lightweight encounter. Griffin is a very good wrestler but he's going to need to avoid Aurelio's submission game. I think we'll get to see Griffin's underrated boxing ability shine in this fight when he defeats Aurelio via third round TKO.	Gregg Doyel: Aurelio isn't the same tentative fighter who looked out of place in his UFC debut, a loss to Clay Guida in August 2007. Which is good, because Griffin is the exact same guy who had beaten Guida just two months earlier. Aurelio has improved his standup to go with one of the best BJJ games in the division, and the aura of Tyson Griffin will be punctured for good when he submits to Aurelio in this one.	Todd Martin: It doesn't get any easier for Tyson Griffin, who faces his fifth consecutive high level opponent. Griffin has to be frustrated that the first four of those fights went to decisions, given that he had finished every opponent in his career previously. The good news is that Griffin should be able to win this fight by utilizing effective ground and pound and avoiding submissions. The bad news is that Aurelio isn't likely to be finished, meaning another tough fifteen minutes for Griffin.	Ben Fowlkes: The high point of Aurelio's career was his victory over TakanoriGomi, but since then he's looked very mediocre. This is a winnable fight for Griffin on all levels as long as he fights smart. That being said, expect him to come out and try to show off his standup game. He should still take this as long as he doesn't do anything too reckless, though if he's smart he'll use his wrestling from the beginning and remove all doubt.

Heavyweight Bout:
	GABRIEL GONZAGA	vs.	JUSTIN McCULLY
	"Napao"	Nickname	"The Insane 1"
	29	Age	32
	6-1	Height	6-2
	8-3 (4-2 UFC)	Record	8-3-2 (1-0 UFC)
	3 (3 UFC)	KO/TKOs	0
	5 (1 UFC)	Submissions	5 (0 UFC)
	2 losses	Streak	4 wins
	lost to Fabricio Werdum UFC 80 1/19/2008	Last Fight	def. Antoni Hardonk Fight Night 9 4/5/2007

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: The idea behind this fight is probably to get Gonzaga back on the winning track. Due to injuries, McCully hasn't fought in over a year, after beating Antoni Hardonk via decision in his UFC debut in April 2007. Up until then, the Team Punishment (guilt by association?) regular hadn't beaten anyone of note. Gonzaga famously knocked out Mirko Cro Cop last year, then lost a pair of fights to Randy Couture and Fabricio Werdum. He should be able to get the better of McCully here, and win via TKO.	Sam Caplan: Justin McCully is tough and Gabriel Gonzaga, is, well? Not always tough. He allowed Fabricio Werdum to break his will. If McCully can use his takedowns and put Gonzaga on his back and utilize good ground and pound technique, then Napao is in trouble. However, I don't believe we'll see an upset because Gonzaga's all-around ground game is just so much better than McCully's and because Gonzaga is a superior athlete.	Gregg Doyel: Seems to me that McCully has a two-fight contract, and the UFC is looking to get rid of him. Why else would they serve him up to Gonzaga, who has more striking and a lot more ground game? McCully's strength is his submission ability, but Gonzaga is off the charts in that category. But I'm guessing this won't end on the ground. I mean, Gonzaga won't be on the ground when it ends. McCully will be, though. Knocked out cold.	Todd Martin: Gonzaga may have been overrated heading into his fight with Randy Couture, but if he can't defeat McCully there is something very wrong. Gonzaga is bigger and stronger than McCully, with a better ground game and better striking. Assuming Gonzaga is in halfway decent shape it's hard to imagine him losing this fight.	Ben Fowlkes: This fight means very little for the UFC heavyweight picture as a whole, making it emblematic of the weak undercard for UFC 86 in general. Gonzaga is the superior technician here and as long as he can bounce back mentally he should have no problem with McCully. Gonzaga by TKO, first round.

Lightweight Bout:
	JORGE GURGEL	vs.	COLE MILLER
	n/a	Nickname	"Magrino"
	31	Age	24
	5-9	Height	6-1
	12-3 (3-2 UFC)	Record	13-3 (2-1 UFC)
	0	KO/TKOs	3 (1 UFC)
	9 (0 UFC)	Submissions	8 (0 UFC)
	1 win	Streak	1 loss
	def. John Halverson UFC 82 3/1/2008	Last Fight	lost to Jeremy Stephens Fight Night 12 1/23/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Miller had a disappointing loss to Jeremy Stephens on the undercard of Fight Night 12 in January. Gurgel is skilled at submissions with nine of them on his record, but none of those were in the UFC, where he has never finished an opponent. I think Miller would have an edge standing up, but a ground fight is harder to call. I don't think Gurgel will be able to finish Miller off, and due to that, I'm picking Miller via decision.	Sam Caplan: Both fighters need to this one badly. Miller is coming off a disappointing loss to Jeremy Stephens at UFC Fight Night 12 and Gurgel has accumulated his three UFC wins against fighters no longer with the promotion. Gurgel's pure jiu-jitsu is better than Miller's and he's shown a lot of toughness in his past few fights, however, I believe that Miller will be too much physically and that he has the better all-around MMA skills. Miller via third round TKO.	Gregg Doyel: Miller has the reach to strike with Gurgel, but once he tastes Gurgel's underrated power he'll want to go to the ground, where Miller is most comfortable. But that's like asking a crocodile to fight in the water -- Gurgel is a BJJ black belt who knows people in the MMA world are waiting for him to show those skills. He'll show them against Miller with a second-round submission.	Todd Martin: Miller's got the youth and the reach, but Gurgel finds ways to get decision wins. The key will be who can dictate the pace and nature of the fight. I think Miller will come in with a winning strategy, and pull off a decision or TKO victory.	Ben Fowlkes: Gurgel has a bad habit of underperforming in fights he should win. When he's on, he's tough and resilient and has a fairly deep arsenal. But it just seems like he doesn't want it badly enough on some night. Miller's size and range could present some problems, even if he's not particularly great at anything. Against my own better judgment, I'm picking Gurgel. It may not be pretty, but he'll eek out a decision.

Lightweight Bout:
	MELVIN GUILLARD	vs.	DENNIS SIVER
	"The Young Assassin"	Nickname	n/a
	25	Age	29
	5-9	Height	5-7
	21-7-3 (3-3 UFC)	Record	11-5 (1-2 UFC)
	13 (3 UFC)	KO/TKOs	3 (1 UFC)
	3 (0 UFC)	Submissions	6
	1 win	Streak	1 loss
	def. Eric Regan RITC 3/7/2008	Last Fight	lost to Gray Maynard Fight Night 12 1/23/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Guillard returns to the UFC after a very brief break. His last UFC appearance was his classic (and embarrassing) loss to Rich Clementi in December. Guillard's favorite weapon is his hands, but the problem is that Siver hasn't been knocked out yet. All but one of Siver's losses were via submission. If Guillard took Clementi's advice and "practiced jiu jitsu, Melvin," he would have the tools to exploit Siver's obvious weakness here. Will he? No... so I'm picking Siver to win, in what some might call an upset.	Sam Caplan: This is a battle of a striker vs. a wrestler. If Guillard is taken off his feet, the fight will finish quickly. But if it stays standing, then Siver could get taken out early. So far I haven't seen anything from Siver in the UFC to make me believe he's going to be a player at 155. Meanwhile, Guillard's athletic upside is undeniable. I see him winning over Siver via first round knockout.	Gregg Doyel: Guillard has the body and power and attitude of great fighter, but he doesn't have the will. Siver, meanwhile, is the exact opposite. Sort of a Rich Clementi, when you think about it, and you do remember what happened when Clementi fought Guillard, correct? Guillard will try to win standing, but when he can't, he'll lose on the ground. Like he always does against quality competition.	Todd Martin: The UFC clearly hasn't given up on Melvin Guillard yet, as evidenced by this fight. Siver is on the low end of UFC's roster, and this is the perfect opportunity for Guillard to showcase his skills following a pair of UFC setbacks. He'll do just that with a knockout victory.	Ben Fowlkes: Another fight with no lasting implications for anyone or anything.Guillard has stubbornly refused to learn enough about submissions even to simply avoid them, and Siver has already been beaten by several guys who barely qualify as mid-level in the UFC. Siver has the edge on the mat, but I have to think that Guillard is smart enough to have prepared for that. Guillard by TKO.

Lightweight Bout:
	COREY HILL	vs.	JUSTIN BUCHHOLZ
	"The Real Deal"	Nickname	n/a
	29	Age	24
	6-4	Height	6-0
	2-0 (1-0 UFC)	Record	7-2 (0-1 UFC)
	2 (1 UFC)	KO/TKOs	3
	0	Submissions	3
	2 wins	Streak	1 loss
	def. Joe Veres Fight Night 12 1/23/2008	Last Fight	lost to Matt Wiman Fight Night 12 1/23/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: I still remember Corey Hill from the TUF5 tryouts in Florida. He was the kid who jumped onto the mat enthusiastically every time they called for a volunteer to roll with another fighter, and with practically zero experience, he always got the better of them. He's in the big show now, so raw talent will only get him so far. He faces a well-rounded Buchholz, who is still looking for his first UFC win. Buchholz will probably test Hill on the ground, if he can get him there. Hill is a hard trainer and a very coachable and humble athlete, so I will assume he has improved and pick him to win this fight.	Sam Caplan: Suddenly Justin Buchholz's first round loss to Matt Wiman at UFN 12 doesn't seem so bad considering that Wiman schooled Thiago Tavares recently. He faces an opponent in Corey Hill who is much more green than Wiman and lacks experience. But what Hill gives up in experience he more than makes up for in physical skills. I think Hill's height and range will prove to be too much and that he'll win a unanimous decision.	Gregg Doyel: I'm not a big Corey Hill guy, though I could become one. He's so unusually built for a lightweight, and such a strong wrestler, that I could be convinced if he'd show some smart stand-up. But I'll never be a Justin Buchholz guy. Not unless he reinvents himself as something more than an MMA journeyman. That can't happen before this weekend, so give this fight to Hill in an unsatisfying fight that will go all three rounds.	Todd Martin: I counted out Hill in his last UFC fight against a low level opponent, and he came through. This time I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, and pick him to utilize his reach and wrestling to defeat Buchholz.	Ben Fowlkes: Hill's inexperience is almost enough to outweigh his natural physical advantages. The UFC has brought him along very slowly since his time on "The Ultimate Fighter", but perhaps they've decided it's time for more of a challenge. Buchholz has a good record against a crop of no-names, and he's on the verge of being ousted from the UFC if he can't pull off a win. If I were him, I'd be working on that resume. Hill takes this via TKO late in the first or second.

About the writers:
Denny Burkholder is the MMA and boxing producer and staff writer for CBSSports.com.
Sam Caplan is an MMA contributor for CBSSports.com and the publisher of FiveOuncesOfPain.com.
CBSSports.com national columnist Gregg Doyel is 3-0 (2 KO) as an amateur welterweight boxing out of UFC lightweight Jorge Gurgel's gym in Ohio.
Todd Martin has covered mixed martial arts for the Los Angeles Times, Wrestling Observer, SI.com and CBSSports.com.
Ben Fowlkes is an MMA contributor for SI.com, CagePotato.com and CBSSports.com.